What Else Could Happen In The Middle East!

A number of moving parts are driving events in this part of the world. Apart from the price of oil, the region is in a juncture, a juncture that would be decisive in the coming months because of an overriding process of political and geoeconomic pressure points. Let’s begin with the constraints on how capital is linearly distributed in the embedded sections of societies all across the region. -Most of produce in terms of economic output and input is positioned and concentrated in a few areas of economic behemoth- mainly stuff like concentration of future profits on investment levers abroad, holding longer-term views on the global economy but not much focused on what matters for local people, consumers and the rest of economic actors. -Capital dispersal is key to economic progress. In the Middle East, this is not key, it isn’t important and it only becomes valid when it hurts the political process, or it upsets the prospects for the advancements of political and religious peace. -It would add that oil as a derivative that has helped the region to improve pathway towards better economic outcomes (I mean look at Afghanistan), oil has improved the fundamentals of envisioning a future but also has concentrated assets and capital among regions with higher dependency levels.

• It's mid-term season in the US, and you can bet that the geopolitical tensions in the region will start to heat up. This is especially true since Donald Trump took office - every few months before elections, things tend to get more intense. So, mark your calendars: about six months before the mid-terms and four to six months after, expect the drama to escalate. This pattern has become pretty predictable, and it's not just coincidence - the stakes are high, and everyone's vying for attention. As the elections draw near, the noise will get louder, and the geopolitical landscape will get more complicated. Buckle up, because it's about to get interesting. -We're looking at a big problem here, and it's not just about oil. There are key trade routes that will be impacted, and we're talking about major ones like the Straights of Hormus and Bab-el-Mandeb. These routes will likely be diverted away from the core area and into the middle of the Indian Ocean. This shift will probably force China to focus more on investing in technology and building up its power along the intercontinental highways and trade routes. As a result, we can expect some significant changes in how goods are transported around the world. China will need to adapt and find new ways to keep its trade flowing smoothly, which could mean pouring more money into its transportation infrastructure.

• China can definitely adjust its focus from sea to land, but that doesn't mean it only has to rely on exports to boost its manufacturing capabilities. Another option is to set up industrial bases in key regions around the world. For example, China has been talking to European countries, like Germany, about moving some of its manufacturing to Europe. This can be done in a way that's both visible and hidden. China can show its willingness to invest heavily by allowing its banks to operate in Europe, which could pose a threat to European banks due to cheaper and more flexible loan options. This strategy could give China a strong foothold in the European market and help it increase its manufacturing presence. By doing so, China can reduce its dependence on exports and create new opportunities for growth. It's a complex plan, but if done right, it could pay off big time for China's manufacturing sector.

• China wants to take the top spot and become the leading power, which aligns with its own interests and long-term goals, making it a strategic move for the country's future ambitions.

• In the Middle East, Chinese trade and banking activities need to be closely tied together. The Saudis, in particular, have some weaknesses in their banking system because they've given a lot of control over their financial dealings to Europeans. This is partly because oil is sold in dollars and widely accepted in euros, which affects how they handle their money. For instance, when it comes to processing and managing their capital, the Saudis rely heavily on European systems. This can make them vulnerable to certain risks. To navigate these challenges, the Chinese approach to combining trade and banking could be an interesting model for the Saudis to consider. By doing so, they might be able to reduce their reliance on European systems and gain more control over their financial affairs. -It's interesting to see how the focus in the Middle East is shifting away from the usual Israel-Iran rivalry and towards a broader landscape. Now, it's not just about Israel and Iran, but also about Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the groups that feel left out, like the terrorists in Yemen, the IRGC, and other uprising elements in the region. This new dynamic will be a challenge. As money moves around, trade routes will change, and technology will become a bigger part of people's daily lives, creating an environment where new and unexpected political alliances can form. This could lead to a bigger shift in politics than we anticipate. The way people live and interact will be affected by technology, and those in power will have to adapt to these changes. The Middle East is entering a new era, one where old alliances are being tested and new ones are being formed, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.